Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
